Instead of Slipping into Life`s Red Zone, He Entered the Tsugaru Strait

One of the privileges of spending the past two years traveling across Japan researching longevity has been meeting people who defy the statistics.  Not people who deny aging. Not people who have somehow escaped it. But people who continue to be ambitious, curious, engaged, and active well into the years when many assume life inevitably narrows.

For most, death is not what we fear.  What unsettles is the long, slow decline that leads to it. The period between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy. It is often the time when frailty increases, independence declines, and for many, life becomes progressively smaller. This period has been called the Red Zone.

In Japan, the average healthy life expectancy is approximately 73 years. Average life expectancy is approximately 85 years. That leaves roughly twelve years in the Red Zone.  I love to meet Red Zone Rebels.  Today I discovered a new one.

This weekend, my friend Tony, took me for a ride in his 1957 MGA.

As we cruised with the top down, our conversation turned to the upcoming Tsugaru Strait swimming season. A fellow sailor, classic car enthusiast, and owner of a classic car restoration business, Tony was leaving in just a few hours to support two swimmers attempting one of the world's most demanding endurance challenges.

While the swimmers receive most of the attention, an entire support network works behind the scenes. Pilots, weather observers, fishermen, boat crews, accommodation providers, and coordinators like Tony all play a part in helping athletes navigate the treacherous waters between Honshu and Hokkaido and attempt one of the most difficult open-water swims on the planet. 

The Tsugaru Strait challenge forms part of the Oceans Seven, a collection of seven legendary channel swims often compared to mountaineering's Seven Summits.  Looking at a map, the challenge appears deceptively simple.  At its narrowest point, the strait is less than twenty kilometers wide. The reality is something else entirely.

Powerful currents surge eastward between the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean, dragging swimmers off course. What appears on a chart to be a twenty-kilometer crossing often becomes thirty, forty, or more. Add cold water, fog, shipping traffic, changing weather, and jellyfish, and the Tsugaru Strait becomes less a swim and more a negotiation with nature.

This year marks ten years since one of the most remarkable swims in the history of the strait.

In September 2016, Toshio Tominaga entered the water and became the oldest person ever to complete the crossing. He was 73 years old.  The stated age in government statistics is the Healthy Life Span.

While many people his age were statistically entering a period of decline, Tominaga was preparing to swim through one of Japan's strongest currents.  That is why I think of him as a Red Zone Rebel.

Tominaga was not a lifelong marathon swimmer. He had played water polo in his youth, but like many people, work, responsibilities, and everyday life occupied the decades that followed. It was only after retiring at age sixty-two that he returned to serious swimming and began pursuing increasingly ambitious open-water challenges. Eleven years later he stood on the shoreline preparing for a crossing that many younger athletes would never attempt.

What interests me most, however, is not simply the physical challenge. It is the decision-making. Every swimmer attempting the Tsugaru Strait faces an important choice before they ever enter the water. Do they swim early in the season or later? Both options offer advantages. Both carry risks.

Early Season	Late Season
Longer daylight hours	Shorter daylight hours
Generally calmer conditions	Greater risk of typhoons
More predictable weather	Less predictable weather
Fewer jellyfish	More jellyfish
Cooler water temperatures	Warmer water temperatures

Most swimmers choose the earlier part of the season. Tominaga chose later.

He willingly accepted the possibility of rougher seas, more jellyfish, shorter days, and a greater risk of weather disruptions. In return, he gained something he considered more important. Warmer water.

He did not eliminate risk. He prioritized it. 

Too often, we imagine successful aging as the gradual elimination of risk from our lives. Yet many of the older adults I have met across Japan's longevity hotspots continue to challenge themselves physically, mentally, socially, and creatively.

What changes is not their willingness to take risks. What changes is their ability to evaluate them. Tominaga understood that every meaningful challenge involves trade-offs. Success was not about avoiding danger. Success was about deciding which danger mattered most.

There is another lesson hidden within his swim. According to reports from his support team, much of the crossing progressed as planned. The greatest challenge came near the end. As he approached Hokkaido, the currents intensified, and the final miles became the hardest part of the entire journey.

One of the assumptions we often make about aging is that our greatest strengths are physical. Yet while some physical capacities inevitably decline, others continue to develop.

Patience develops. Perspective develops. Emotional resilience develops. And perhaps most importantly, perseverance develops.

After seven decades of life, most people have survived disappointment, loss, setbacks, illness, failure, uncertainty, and countless moments when quitting would have been easier than continuing. Those experiences build something. They build what I think of as the perseverance muscle. The ability to keep moving forward when progress slows. The ability to endure uncertainty. The ability to stay the course when the finish line remains out of sight. Far from being a weakness of aging, perseverance may be one of its superpowers.

Tominaga's achievement required physical training, preparation, and discipline. But I suspect his greatest advantage was not found in his shoulders, lungs, or cardiovascular system. It was found in the seventy-three years of life experience he carried into the water. At the age when the average Japanese person statistically enters the Red Zone, Toshio Tominaga entered the Tsugaru Strait. He evaluated the risks. He chose his priorities. And when the currents became strongest, he kept swimming. 

That is why I think of him as a Red Zone Rebel. Not because he escaped aging. But because he refused to let a number define what was still possible, and of those who want to emulate him, not in doing the swim but being of a mindset to take on new challenges.

Two Things Tominaga's Swim Teaches Us About Aging Well

Tominaga's achievement was certainly physical, but I suspect the deeper lessons are not.

The first lesson is that successful aging is not about eliminating risk. It is about becoming better at evaluating it. Every meaningful challenge involves trade-offs. Tominaga understood that. He looked at competing risks, decided which mattered most, and then committed himself to the path he believed gave him the best chance of success.

The second lesson is the power of perseverance. When the currents became strongest and the final miles became the hardest, he kept swimming. After seven decades of life, that ability to continue despite setbacks, uncertainty, fatigue, and adversity may be one of the greatest strengths we possess.

Perhaps that is one of the hidden gifts of aging. We may lose some speed. We may lose some strength. But we gain experience, perspective, judgment, and perseverance.

At the age when the average Japanese person statistically enters the Red Zone, Toshio Tominaga entered the Tsugaru Strait.

He evaluated the risks. He trusted his preparation. And when the currents turned against him, he kept swimming.

For me, those are not merely the lessons of an extraordinary endurance swim. They are lessons in how to age well.

 

Tominaga's achievement was certainly physical, but I the deeper lessons are not on physical endurance.

The first lesson is that successful aging is not about eliminating risk. It is about becoming better at evaluating it. Every meaningful challenge involves trade-offs. Tominaga understood that. He looked at competing risks, decided which mattered most, and then committed himself to the path he believed gave him the best chance of success.

The second lesson is the power of perseverance. When the currents became strongest and the final miles became the hardest, he kept swimming. After seven decades of life, that ability to continue despite setbacks, uncertainty, fatigue, and adversity may be one of the greatest strengths we possess.

Perhaps that is one of the hidden gifts of aging.

We may lose some speed. We may lose some strength. But we gain experience, perspective, judgment, and perseverance.

At the age when the average Japanese person statistically enters the Red Zone, Toshio Tominaga entered the Tsugaru Strait. He evaluated the risks. He trusted his preparation. And when the currents turned against him, he kept swimming. For me, those are not merely the lessons of an extraordinary endurance swim.

They are lessons in how to age well.

Endnotes

1. Healthy Life Expectancy and the Red Zone

Olshansky, S. Jay, et al. introduced the concept of the "Red Zone" to describe the period between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy, when chronic illness, disability, frailty, and loss of independence become increasingly common. The concept emphasizes not simply living longer, but compressing morbidity into the shortest possible period at the end of life.

Olshansky, S. Jay, et al. "The Growing Gap Between Life Span and Health Span: Implications for Aging, Health Care and Public Policy." Public Policy & Aging Report, Vol. 28, No. 4, 2018, pp. 139–145.

Olshansky, S. Jay. Testimony before the United States Senate Special Committee on Aging, "Optimizing Longevity: From Research to Public Policy," July 2023.

2. Healthy Life Expectancy in Japan

According to the World Health Organization, Japan's life expectancy is approximately 85 years, while healthy life expectancy is approximately 73 years, leaving a period of roughly twelve years during which disability, illness, or dependency may become increasingly common.

World Health Organization (WHO). World Health Statistics 2024: Monitoring Health for the SDGs. Geneva: WHO, 2024.

World Health Organization. Global Health Observatory Data Repository. Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE), Japan.

3. The Tsugaru Strait Challenge

The Tsugaru Strait separates Honshu and Hokkaido and is recognized as one of the Oceans Seven, a collection of seven marathon swimming challenges regarded as the open-water equivalent of mountaineering's Seven Summits. Although the strait narrows to approximately 19.5 kilometres at its shortest point, powerful currents often require swimmers to cover significantly greater distances.

Marathon Swimmers Federation. "Tsugaru Channel." LongSwims Database. Accessed June 2026.

Openwaterpedia. "Tsugaru Channel Records and History." International Marathon Swimming Hall of Fame.

Tsugaru Channel Swimming Association (TCSA). Official Channel Rules and Crossing Information.

4. Toshio Tominaga's Record Swim

In September 2016, Toshio Tominaga of Hiroshima became the oldest person to successfully swim the Tsugaru Strait at age 73. He completed the crossing in 9 hours 58 minutes after covering approximately 38 kilometers in challenging conditions. At the time, his performance ranked among the fastest crossings recorded in the channel's history.

"73-Year-Old Becomes the Oldest Person to Cross the Tsugaru Strait." SwimSwam, September 8, 2016.

"Japanese Man, 73, Completes Record Swim Across Strait." Agence France-Presse, September 2016.

Taipei Times. "Japanese Man, 73, Completes Record Swim Across Strait." September 8, 2016.

5. Endurance Performance and Aging

Research increasingly suggests that while explosive power and speed tend to peak earlier in life, endurance performance and psychological resilience may remain remarkably robust into later adulthood, particularly among highly trained athletes.

Tanaka, Hirofumi, and Douglas R. Seals. "Endurance Exercise Performance in Masters Athletes: Age-Associated Changes and Underlying Physiological Mechanisms." The Journal of Physiology, Vol. 586, No. 1, 2008, pp. 55–63.

Lepers, Romuald, and Beat Knechtle. "Age and Gender Interactions in Ultra-Endurance Performance." Frontiers in Physiology, 2012.

6. Acknowledgment

The inspiration for this article came from a conversation with Tony Hardie, a fellow sailor, classic car enthusiast, and supporter of the Tsugaru Strait swimming community. In addition to his involvement in endurance swimming logistics and support, Tony operates a classic-car restoration and sales business in Japan and hosts the YouTube channel Fast Bikes Japan.

YouTube: @fastbikejp

About the Author

Lowell Sheppard is a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society, Senior Advisor to the International Academic Forum (IAFOR), and Founder of the Never Too Late Academy. A Canadian who has lived in Japan for nearly three decades, he has spent the past two years traveling to all 47 prefectures researching longevity, healthy aging, and community. His forthcoming book, Longevity and the Art of Community: Lessons from Japan, explores what the world's longest-lived society can teach us about extending not just lifespan, but healthspan. He writes regularly on aging, purpose, community, and the opportunities of later life.